Tuesday, March 9, 2010

What are the chances? (BC in the ACC Tournament)

You know and I know that the Eagles' hopes of doing any damage in this upcoming tournament are slim.  Does it mean we won't watch?  Well, I'm sure some of you have had absolutely enough of BC basketball this year, but I'll still watch if you won't.

You've seen BC's tournament draw, so in the absence of anything else to write about (I'll have plenty of time for the Hockey East and NCAA Hockey Tournaments later), this is my personal evaluation of BC's chances to reach the next level.  I base this on nothing but my opinion so don't get your panties in a twist if you see something you don't like.

Thursday: 1st round vs. 9 Virginia

The Cavaliers are playing worse than any other team in the ACC right now.  BC beat them at Conte Forum with a solid 68-55 win with Sylven Landesberg in the lineup for the Wahoos.  Landesberg is now gone due to academic suspension and Virginia has officially packed it in.  We might not get a great effort from BC, but I expect very little of one from the Cavaliers.  After Sunday's NC State game, however, I will very slightly downgrade my expectations.

BC's chance of advancing to quarterfinals: 65%
BC's chance of winning by double digits: 40%

Friday: Quarterfinals vs. 1 Duke

Boston College had one truly bad half of basketball against the Blue Devils, and that was the 2nd at Cameron Indoor.  The first half at Conte Forum wasn't good but it wasn't horrible, the 1st half at Cameron was decent, and the 2nd half at Conte was good.  In stretches, BC has played well against Duke, but consider the fact that they will be playing in North Carolina, which means it will essentially be a home game, and that Duke has a potential one-seed for which to play.

In case you didn't notice, this tournament draw (at least the first two rounds) looks exactly the same for BC this year as it did last year: UVA in the first round, Duke in the quarters.  That BC team came very close to knocking Duke off.  This BC team probably won't, but I will give them a puncher's chance.

BC's chance of advancing to semifinals: 25%
BC's chance of a double-digit loss: 50%

Saturday: Semifinals vs. 4 VT, 5 Wake, or 12 Miami

If BC gets to this round, consider it a miracle.  I actually like the way this round looks: as long as Wake Forest isn't the team BC must face, I know the Eagles are capable of playing solidly against either the Hokies or Hurricanes.  BC should be 4-0 against both of them if not for a stunning last-minute gag job in Blacksburg.  I don't think BC matches up well with the Deacs, but you knew that as well.  I think the Eagles would have a good chance against Miami (who will probably be one-and-done), decent chance against Virginia Tech, and not-so-good chance against Wake.

BC's chance of advancing to championship game: 12%

Sunday: Championship Game vs. 2 Maryland, 3 FSU, 6 Clemson, 7 GT, 10 UNC, or 11 NC State

Who the hell knows what could happen here.  BC isn't going to get this far, but let's pretend for a moment.  There really is not one team on that list I would be happy to see for one reason or another.  I don't like this round nearly as much as I would like the semifinal matchups.  I'd say there's a minimal chance BC would win if they got here, which would be an act of God in and of itself.

BC's chance of winning ACC championship: 3%

Is a 3% chance of winning the whole thing optimistic?  Not really; it's 3%, dammit.  This website thinks I'm very optimistic, as it only gives BC about a 0.4% chance and gives Miami a better shot than us.  Then again, it gives Virginia about a forty-six and a half percent chance of beating BC without its best player, which I think is a stretch.  When you're down to numbers that low, however, it's not worth an argument.

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