Friday, February 26, 2010

ACC Tournament possibilities

Despite the fact that there are only three games remaining in the season, there are still a number of possible seeding outcomes for the Eagles.  Believe it or not, the 2010 ACC Tournament is less than two weeks away, and when it comes to the seedings, everything is still very much up in the air.  Rather than break down all the seedings BC could possibly get and how they could be achieved, because I'm lazy and you're not going to read it all anyway, I will start by telling you that BC can still be as high as the 6-seed (their seeding last year) or as low as the 12th (dead last).  They are currently the 9th, and the lowest they've ever been is 11th.

Since we're only concerned with BC moving upwards, not down, let me break down how BC can slide up.  Being in the 9th spot, the two teams directly in front of them in line are Georgia Tech (7th) and Virginia (8th).  It also so happens that BC plays both of those teams in their next two games.  If Boston College beats both, they will be in the 7th spot.  If they follow those games up with a win at NC State, they are guaranteed a finish no worse than 7th.

Now the Eagles can actually move a little further up than that into 6th, but that will take a lot of help.  It would essentially require BC to win out at 8-8 and Clemson to lose out at 7-9.  Clemson would have the tiebreaker if they were to tie.  Virginia Tech also has the tiebreaker on BC when you look at whom they've beaten, so they could not move up to 5th if the Eagles and Hokies tied at 8-8.

But wait, it gets more confusing.  The scenario I described above describes the tiebreaker if TWO teams were tied in the standings.  If THREE teams or more are tied, a different tiebreaker is applied, namely, win percentage against the other teams with whom you are tied.  In that case, BC would still not have the tiebreaker over Virginia Tech, but would over Clemson.  If VT, Clemson, and BC are all 8-8 at the end of the season, VT would be the 5, BC the 6, and Clemson the 7.

Here is a recap: BC can, with a great deal of help, finish as high at 6th, and with absolutely everything breaking the wrong way, as low as 12th.  If BC wins out they will be at least the 7.  If they do not win out, they will likely be no better than the 8.

I think the goal right now for BC should be to move up and out of that 8/9 matchup to seek a more favorable tournament draw.  If they win their last three, they will do that, but with some serious help, it could be even better.  The good news (if you want to call it that) is that the chances of falling to the 11th or 12th seed are quite remote.

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