Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The OOC come March

Today, I'm going to take us about two months into the future and do something I've done a bit of before.  I will have the perspective of a tournament selection committee member and I will be looking over Boston College's resume in non-conference play.

Now then, Boston College played 14 out-of-conference games this season, and compiled a record of 9-5 in those games (the most regular-season OOC losses for BC in Al Skinner's tenure at the school).  This, if I were on the committee, is how I would see their performance, and in case you couldn't already tell, it's not all that pretty.

Wins over teams also being considered for bids (2)
at Michigan
vs. South Carolina

Both teams have been inconsistent to varying degrees, but both may win enough conference games to keep themselves relevant.

Wins over decent teams that play in big conferences but aren't going anywhere (1)
at Providence 

The Big East has nine teams in the conversation for a tournament berth at this point, and the Friars ain't one of them.

Wins over meh teams that don't play in big conferences and aren't going anywhere (1)
vs. Massachusetts

The Minutemen look like they're going nowhere fast and may get run over in the stronger A10.

Utterly meaningless wins (5)
vs. Dartmouth
vs. St. Francis (NY)
vs. South Dakota State (neutral site)
vs. Bryant
vs. NJIT

Thanks for playing.

Losses against teams that will be in the conversation (2)
vs. Northern Iowa (neutral)
vs. Rhode Island

Northern Iowa could win its conference title again this year and Rhode Island had the best OOC record in the A10.  The A10 will get multiple bids and the Rams can grab one if they back their hot start up in conference play.

Losses against teams that aren't the worst in the country but are still pretty damn bad (2)
vs. St. Joseph's (neutral)
vs. Harvard

Believe it or not, the St. Joe's loss looks worse than Harvard.  The Crimson are off to their best start in a long time but play in a pathetic conference, while the Hawks play in a relatively good conference but are terrible.  There are worse teams in college than them, but both losses will be blights on the resume.

Catastrophic losses (1)
vs. Maine

Bad team, check.  Not going anywhere, check.  Embarrassed BC on home court, check.  This is the 2008-2009 Harvard loss, except maybe worse.

Right now let's eliminate all the games that aren't the best of the best or the worst of the worst, and say that there are two good wins and three bad losses.  It appears, however, that the three bad ones are worse losses than the two good ones are good wins.  If the season were based upon only those results, BC wouldn't even be getting a CBI invite.

Just our luck, however: there are still 15 more games, and all of them are in the ACC.  Taking into account the OOC resume and BC's one win already in the bank, how many more ACC games will the Eagles need to win?  I'm going to say nine, at least.  Getting to 10 ACC wins is normally pretty good, but the ACC looks like it's having a down year.  It lost the ACC-Big Ten Challenge for the first time ever and some programs have taken some big licks (i.e. BC and their whoppers, UNC losing to Charleston and already sitting at 4 losses, Maryland losing to William & Mary, etc.).  They might even have to win nine more in the regular season and swipe one in the ACC Tournament, for a total of 11 ACC wins.  That gets them to 20 overall and at least gives them a chance.

With conference play resuming this weekend, the battle for BC is uphill.  It is going to take a bucket full of wins just to revive this team's hopes, and we'll all find out together if they're up to it.

No comments:

Post a Comment