Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Week 11 in the ACC: Picks

I actually had a good week with the picks in Week 10, going 4-2.  Somehow I doubt I'll replicate my success in Week 11, but what the hell, I'll try anyway.

A little piece of useless knowledge before we begin: this is the first of two weeks this season where the ACC will play no out-of-conference games.  It's all in-house in Week 11 as all 12 teams will play.

#7 Georgia Tech at Duke
Line: GT -12.5

The Yellow Jackets played a much closer than expected game against Wake Forest last weekend, while Duke's loss to local rival North Carolina essentially sealed their fate in the ACC Coastal race.  This is Duke's last stand, but I don't think they'll have enough to overcome that triple-option offense here.  Georgia Tech, in my opinion, was the best team in the conference last year but lost a close one to the Hokies, thereby missing out.  Now in 2009, they are unquestionably the ACC's best team.  They will punch their ticket to the championship game on Saturday.  Pick: Georgia Tech

#24 Clemson at North Carolina State
Line: Clemson -8

This team is ranked?  I've watched a number of their games, and while there is undoubtedly talent on both sides of the ball, they've played unimpressively in several contests this year.  Despite pouring it on late against FSU, I wasn't really wowed by the Tigers.  This week, they get a weaker opponent but have to travel up to Raleigh.  Clemson is a 1-2 road team (their win being the OT shocker in Miami), but they have also lost to Maryland away from Death Valley.  This is another one that Eagles fans will be watching with interest before their own game starts, and puts them in the awkward position of having to root for Tom O'Brien's (pathetic) team.  Last week I went with my heart and not my head and I was wrong; this week I will go with my head and not my heart and hope to be wrong.  Pick: Clemson

Florida State at Wake Forest
Line: Wake -5

The Seminoles shot their load last weekend in Clemson and lost, officially sticking a fork in them for the ACC Atlantic title.  Wake Forest hasn't fared too much better lately, having taken two ranked teams down to the wire and coming up empty-handed.  Florida State can't play defense to save their lives this year, but they can score points at a good clip.  Riley Skinner has thrown 20 touchdown passes for Wake in 2009, so they're no offensive slouches, either.  I will give the edge to the home team as the "Bobby Bowden era" continues rolling downhill to its gruesome end.  Pick: Wake Forest

#20 Virginia Tech at Maryland
Line: VT -17.5

The Hokies aren't playing for much except the Champs Sports or maybe the Chick-fil-A Bowl these days, but they'll still probably be motivated to go out there and keep winning.  This week, they get to feast on a putrid Terrapins team which leads the ACC with 7 losses.  Maryland hasn't won a game since October 3rd, and Virginia Tech hasn't lost to the Terps since 1990, before they were even in the Big East.  I don't think the drought for UMD ends on Saturday.  Pick: Virginia Tech

#12 Miami at North Carolina
Line: Miami -3.5

The 'Canes are ranked pretty highly, but North Carolina is hot.  The Tar Heels have won 3 out of 4, with their only loss in that streak being a 3-point decision against Florida State where they gagged up a big lead.  Two of their three losses, however, have been at home.  Other than their stunning OT loss to Clemson, Miami has been rolling along for the last month and a half.  UNC are playing for a decent bowl game, while Miami is playing for an outside shot at an at-large berth to the BCS (ranked 14th currently).  If they want to keep their hopes alive then they'll have to win, and I believe they will.  I must say, however, that North Carolina is worth watching and they are capable of the upset.  Pick: Miami

Boston College at Virginia
Line: BC -4

I will have something to say about this game on Friday, but I have already had something to say about it on BCDraft and you can listen to that podcast tomorrow.

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