2009 NL East Preview

The 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies reside in this division, but as always, they will get a stiff challenge. This year, once again, they will face the New York Mets at the top of the log while the three other teams in the running could help make things interesting. Could there be a change at the top this season? It's quite possible.

Again, consult the Baseball Prospectus link for the detailed BP predictions.

Philadelphia Phillies, defending division and World Series champions (92-70 in 2008)
Key additions: Raul Ibanez (OF), Chan Ho Park (P)
Key subtractions: Pat Burrell (OF), Adam Eaton (P)

Last year, the Phils, for the first time in 28 years, got their hands on a trophy. I had a feeling it was going to happen too; that team just had the right chemistry and they clearly knew how to win in a big spot. It all came together for them at the right time. This year, they’ve made very few changes to the makeup of the team, and the entire nucleus of the Phillies has been held together in the offseason. I expect the Phillies to compete once again and have a good chance of defending their division title, if not more. This is one of the most solid, proven teams in the NL that you’ll find and I'd be very surprised to see them miss the playoffs.

BP prediction: 2nd in NL East
My prediction: NL East champions

New York Mets (89-73 in 2008)
Key additions: Francisco Rodriguez (P), JJ Putz (P)
Key subtractions: Pedro Martinez (P), Scott Schoeneweis (P), Billy Wagner (P) [likely out for season]

On the heels of back-to-back late-season collapses, the Mets reloaded their bullpen, which was a large part of the reason for those collapses. The Mets signed Angels closer Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez who set a major league record last year for saves in a season (62) and Broadway productions on the mound for every time he threw a strike (100+). They added another hard-throwing closer – the Mariners’ JJ Putz – to be their set-up guy. The Mets have a good enough offense, and will surely want to not make it three folds in a row, but I have to see them not choke to believe it. They have a realistic chance at the postseason once again.

BP Prediction: NL East champions
My prediction: 2nd in NL East

Florida Marlins (84-77 in 2008)
Key additions: Yeah right, like this team’s adding payroll
Key subtractions: Matt Treanor (C), Josh Willingham (OF)

Bobby Cox, manager of the Braves, said last season that he felt the Marlins have the best rotation in the NL East. The rotation that won such high praise in 2008 is basically all intact this year. Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Scott Olsen all posted an ERA+ of over 100 last season, and with their talent, there’s no reason they can’t at least come close to repeating, at least in the case of Johnson and Olsen who have had similarly good past seasons. The Marlins have some all-star caliber players in their lineup, but they were overall in the middle-of-the-pack last year and probably will be again in 2009. This team surprised some people with their 84 wins last year, but I’d expect a similar outcome this year. Much will depend on their rotation holding it together.

BP prediction: 5th in NL East
My prediction: 3rd in NL East

Atlanta Braves (72-90 in 2008)
Key additions: Derek Lowe (P), Garret Anderson (OF), Javier Vazquez (P)
Key subtractions: John Smoltz (P)

After 14 straight division titles, the Braves have had three clunkers in a row, the worst of which was last season. 2008 was Atlanta’s worst season since 1990. They’ve added a few nice pieces that will help them compete, and they should certainly be able to improve upon their record, but they’re no longer in the top tier of teams in the NL East. Pitcher Tim Hudson will also not be rejoining them until close to the season’s end, if at all. The Braves were 7 games below their Pythagorean win-loss last season, showing that they were probably a better team than it appeared, but they’ve still got much work to do before we’re talking about “Braves” and “playoffs” in the same sentence again (aside from that right there).

BP prediction: 3rd in NL East
My prediction: 4th in NL East

Washington Nationals (59-102 in 2008)
Key additions: Adam Dunn (OF), Daniel Cabrera (P), Josh Willingham (OF)
Key subtractions: Aaron Boone (IF)

There’s no two ways about it: the Nationals are pretty bad. There’s a chance, however, that they might not be as bad in 2009 as they were in 2008. The Nats tacked on a home run hitter in Adam Dunn, a decent-to-solid hitter in Josh Willingham, and a pitcher, Daniel Cabrera, whom if they get anything out of, it’ll be a plus. Cabrera was the kind of pitcher in Baltimore who could strike out and walk 10 batters a piece per game. Perhaps the National League will be easier on him. I don’t suspect there’s much hope for Washington this year, but you never know.

BP prediction: 4th in NL East
My prediction: 5th in NL East

Next up: The AL Central preview