I start out with what was in 2008, and probably will be in 2009, the highest-quality division in Major League Baseball. In 2008, 4 of the division's 5 teams finished at least 10 games above .500 and holds both competitors from last year's American League Championship Series. This is baseball's best division -- pretty much without any debate -- heading into the new season.
The projections that are not my own being cited in this article are from Baseball Prospectus. Teams will be evaluated in order of their finish last season.
Tampa Bay Rays, defending division and AL champions (97-65 in 2008)
Key additions: Pat Burrell (OF)
Key subtractions: Edwin Jackson (P)
Tampa Bay has managed to keep most of their shocking AL champion team together in 2009. One player who wouldn't count as a key addition to the roster but will make a much larger impact in the coming year is David Price (P), an excellent young pitcher who, in only 14 innings last regular season and through the playoffs, showed glimpses of his ability. Adding Pat Burrell from their erstwhile World Series foes will put a little more pop in an offense that had a middle-of-the-road OPS+ of 99 last year. The only thing that will keep them from reaching the same number of wins or more will be the improvement of the division. I think they can be a serious contender once again, but then again, they might take a bit of a step back like Detroit did in 2007 (though I think this is a better team than that one).
BP prediction: T-2nd in AL East
My prediction: 3rd in AL East
Boston Red Sox (95-67 in 2008)
Key additions: Brad Penny (P), John Smoltz (P), Rocco Baldelli (OF), Takashi Saito (P)
Key subtractions: Curt Schilling (P), Coco Crisp (OF)
Last year's wild card winners are looking for their 5th playoff berth in 6 seasons under manager Terry Francona, who, coming from a Yankee fan, is one of the classiest guys in the game. Boston added some more pitching while tweaking their offense slightly. The retirement of Curt Schilling, while expected, removes an experienced arm from their rotation; it is clear, however, that they've added 2 of those anyway: Brad Penny (a likely back-end starter) and John Smoltz (will not be available at the start of the season). Their rotation is formidable, headlined by Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester. Jason Bay will have a full season in front of the Green Monster and should be an admirable permanent fill-in for class clown/RBI machine Manny Ramirez. They didn't change much of their team, so I could see Boston doing about the same as last year: having a 90+ win season with a reasonably good chance of the playoffs.
BP prediction: T-2nd in AL East
My prediction: 2nd in AL East
New York Yankees (89-73 in 2008)
Key additions: Mark Teixeira (IF), CC Sabathia (P), AJ Burnett (P)
Key subtractions: Mike Mussina (P), Jason Giambi (IF), Bobby Abreu (OF)
If the offseason had a "winner" -- not counting the A-Rod crap -- the Yankees were it. Brian Cashman and crew broke the proverbial bank to secure three of the top four free agents on the market and give their team a serious upgrade, more than replacing what they lost. The 2008 season was a tale of misery and woe for the Yankees, losing more than a handful of key contributors to injury and missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993 while putting out their worst offensive production since 1992 (due in large part to a team-wide situational-hitting slump and bad luck). This year, with the exception of the aforementioned Mr. Rodriguez, everyone's back and ready to go. The Yankees' starting rotation is, on paper, impressive as is their offense, but much will be expected from both as they start out in their new stadium. Ever-consistent Chien-Ming Wang will be back from injury and will doubtlessly avoid running the bases hard in the future. Brett Gardner as the CF (I'm calling the CF race) will provide more speed to their game. If the Yankees avoid the injury bug (which is a big if these days, seeing as how they've already lost one to it), they will make a return to the postseason. With the amount of cash the Steinbrenners spent, failure will not be an option.
BP prediction: AL East champions
My prediction: AL East champions
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76 in 2008)
Key additions: Um, no one
Key subtractions: AJ Burnett (P)
I admit, I was a little surprised when the Jays pulled a Redskins last season and hauled their old coach from the glory days out of the pastures and put him back to work. I'm referring, of course, to 2-time world champion manager Cito Gaston, who undoubtedly is back in the swing of things after an 11-year absence from managing. He's going to have a tough go of it this year by the looks of things. His rotation lost AJ Burnett to the Yankees, and replaced him with no one of note. The offense and bullpen are more-or-less exactly what they were at the end of last season. The Jays' offense was relatively awful last season, posting an OPS+ of 95 and plating 714 runs, which was good for 21st in baseball and 11th best in the AL. They won their games on their outstanding pitching led by Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett, with a nice season thrown in by Jesse Litsch. Jays pitching in 2008 allowed only 610 runs, which was by far the best in baseball. Now, with half of that power pitching duo gone, I have a hard time believing this team stays over .500 this year in a super-tough AL East.
BP prediction: 5th in AL East
My prediction: 4th in AL East
Baltimore Orioles (68-93 in 2008)
Key additions: Cesar Izturis (IF), Koji Uehara (P), Adam Eaton (P)
Key subtractions: Ramon Hernandez (C), Kevin Millar (IF), Daniel Cabrera (P)
At least they're trying to shake things up in Baltimore, for all the good it will do them it seems. The Orioles have been starved for a playoff berth since Cal was manning the infield and they've not made nearly enough constructive changes (on paper) to compete with the big dogs. Baltimore got into the Japanese market and landed themselves a pitcher in Koji Uehara -- the only issue being that he will be 34 years old on opening day and has yet to pitch in a ML game. Uehara has had some good seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, but the AL East is not the Japan League, so it remains to be seen how he (presumably the O's #2 starter) will do. The name that most O's fans will focus on this year, however, has not yet been mentioned: Matt Wieters. This catching prospect is widely expected to get his big break in the majors this season and according to many scouts, he's the real deal. Wieters may prove to be the bright spot in another depressing summer on and around Eutaw Street.
BP prediction: 4th in AL East
My prediction: 5th in AL East
Next up: the NL East preview
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