Week 2: Kent State vs. BC -- Analysis

Basic info
Kickoff at 2pm, Saturday, September 12, 2009
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
Forecast high 65F; showers

Point spread
Boston College -21

All-time series
Boston College 1-0 (defeated Kent State 21-0 in 2008 at Cleveland Browns Stadium)

Kent State Golden Flashes (1-0)
-Last game: Defeated Coastal Carolina 18-0 at home
-Quarterback: Giorgio Morgan (sophomore), 21-35, 201 yd., 0 TD, 2 INT; injured his ankle in Week 1 but is expected to start
-Leading rusher: Eugene Jarvis, 27 car., 141 yd., 1 TD
-Player to watch: Jarvis.  Cool, rainy, and maybe a little windy probably means more ground game.

Boston College Eagles (1-0)
-Last game: Defeated Northeastern 54-0 at home; largest margin of victory since 1974
-Quarterbacks: Dave Shinskie (freshman),  7-10, 110 yd., 1 TD; Justin Tuggle (RS freshman), 3-5, 56 yd., 1 TD
-Leading rusher: Montel Harris, 15 car., 113 yd., 2 TD
-Player(s) to watch: Whomever is the BC quarterback.  We'll see how they do against slightly better opposition.

Analysis
Both Kent State and Boston College are coming off of nice wins on Opening Day.  Each team pitched a shutout, but the Eagles' win was obviously more spectacular, scoring three times as many points as the Flashes did in their game.  In any event, Kent State are still three-touchdown underdogs, and for good reason.  Their opening victory against Coastal Carolina may have been a nice way to start, but Boston College is no Big South team.  Likewise, Kent State is no FCS team, but they still don't compare talent-wise to an ACC program like BC.  KSU didn't pull away from CCU until the 4th quarter, whereas BC had sealed their game in the first. 

The KSU offense compiled some decent stats at times, particularly Eugene Jarvis who ran for 143 yards, but Boston College's rushing attack accounted for 236 yards of offense.  Of course, the Eagles were run-heavy against Northeastern (38 run plays against 22 passes), and the weather Saturday is not predicted to be as nice as last weekend, so the Eagles might stick with the run, despite obvious promise in both Shinskie and Tuggle, the two leading men of BC's four quarterbacks.

Kent State held CCU to 185 yards of offense, whereas BC kept NU at 131.  Boston College's defense will likely dominate against Kent State in much the same way as they did against Northeastern, though no one should get too hung up on the statistics from the first game.  One name on defense I keep hearing in BC circles is Luke Kuechly, and I have to agree that given time, this freshman will develop quite nicely.  We'll see if he and his corps are ready for an encore this Saturday.

I wouldn't expect a similar score, however, but would be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

Bottom Line
BC wins big; probably covers the spread