Sunday, May 3, 2009

BC Baseball gets a big one

Boston College's baseball team beat the Miami Hurricanes for the first time in program history on Sunday, sticking it to the #13 team in the country by a margin of 13-3. Pat Dean was brilliant for the Eagles, as BC picked up a game they absolutely had to have to solidify their position for the postseason. The Eagles (29-19, 12-13) will take a finals break this week and then play two with LeMoyne next weekend to try to get over the 30-win mark for the first time since 2005.

The better news for BC is that Virginia Tech, their closest competitor for that last ACC tournament slot, got swept by Florida State this weekend. Here's how that tourney would look right now (top 8 qualify):

(1) Florida State
(2) North Carolina
(3) Georgia Tech
(4) Virginia
(5) Clemson
(6) Miami
(7) Duke
(8) Boston College

Virginia Tech is at 9th and out of the tournament right now. BC and VT both have three ACC games remaining -- the Hokies will play Virginia (a pretty good team) and BC will play UNC (an outstanding team). Meanwhile, NC State at the 10 spot has 6 games left, and mathematically they can still make it. Wake Forest and Maryland are done.

The scenario for BC is simple: if the Eagles win one against UNC, Virginia Tech is out. BC would have a record of at least 13-15 and the Hokies would not be able to catch them. Further, if VT lost even one game to Virginia, they are out -- 16 ACC losses has them alive, but 17 would mathematically eliminate them.

Now NC State is interesting because the Wolfpack still have six ACC games left as opposed to the three BC and VT have. If BC lost all three games to UNC (12-16 ACC record) and NC State won all 6 of their remaining games (14-16), the Pack is in. If BC wins one game against UNC (13-15) and NC State wins out in the ACC (14-16), NC State has it on percentage points. NC State, therefore, will be eliminated with (a) 2 more BC wins, (b) one more BC win and one more NC State loss, or (c) 2 more NC State losses.

If you want it broken down, VT's elimination number is one and NC State's is 2. BC's "magic number" for the tournament, then, is 2.

If the standings math has changed between the time I write this and when you read it I apologize, but I'm pretty sure I've got this all down.

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