I said "last but not least" yesterday in reference to this division, but it just might be least amongst divisions. Last year, a .500 record on September 1st had you in the heat of a pennant race. The Dodgers, the 2008 winners, had a losing record as late as September 2nd. In 2009, the division may be equally as boring, but perhaps not quite as bad.
Baseball Prospectus predictions will be, as always, compared to mine but theirs do change slightly during the spring.
Los Angeles Dodgers, defending division champions (84-78 in 2008)
Key additions: Orlando Hudson (IF), Randy Wolf (P)
Key subtractions: Derek Lowe (P), Brad Penny (P), Greg Maddux (P), Takashi Saito (P)
The first thing you notice about the Dodgers is that getting Manny in a trade really made winning that division easier. The second thing you notice is how they've hemorrhaged pitching this offseason. Their #1 starter (or slight #2, if you want to consider Billingsley the #1) is pitching for Ted Turner now. Their closer (who was solid) and other starter (who sucked last year anyway) now play at Fenway. Maddux was barely there so he doesn't really count. Their pitching is still adequate but they've lost a little punch. Manny Ramirez was clearly the only thing making the Dodgers' offense go late in the year, carving up NL pitching like a pork roast. Don't get me wrong, there's talent elsewhere in the lineup, but they'll benefit mostly from having him for a full year. They're probably the team to beat again.
BP prediction: NL West champions
My prediction: NL West champions
Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80 in 2008)
Key additions: Jon Garland (P), Scott Schoeneweis (P), Felipe Lopez (IF)
Key subtractions: Orlando Hudson (IF), Randy Johnson (P), Brandon Lyon (P), David Eckstein (IF)
The 2008 Snakes started out the last season en fuego, but as soon as the calendar hit May, the D-Backs suddenly became as dull as dishwater, slowly letting their division lead fritter away until the Dodgers finally got it in September for good. That team, who were at the time the defending division champions, simply weren't very good. This year, they hope that their young offense has gained experience and can find a few more hits in those bats. They only scored an anemic 720 runs, but they allowed 706, which ain't bad if I do say so myself. Outside of Randy Johnson, that rotation is intact. The bullpen looks about even with where it was last season. Webb and Haren will rack up a bunch of wins if given the chance, but you can't win if you can't score yourselves. It comes down to the offense picking up their game in 2009. If that happens, they're in the mix.
BP prediction: 2nd in NL West
My prediction: 2nd in NL West
Colorado Rockies (74-88 in 2008)
Key additions: Huston Street (P), Jason Marquis (P)
Key subtractions: Matt Holliday (OF), Brian Fuentes (P), Willy Taveras (P)
2007's miracle team were nothing of the sort in 2008, making it only 1 game over .500 at one point in April before collapsing and falling far out of the running. It does not help at all that they lost their star outfielder and solid closer. They won't get the same production out of either of their replacements. Huston Street, maybe close, but no promises. Outside of Cook and Jimenez the rotation is not particularly good. They'll always find ways to put up runs in that thin mountain air, but this is (on paper) a below-average team.
BP prediction: 4th in NL West
My prediction: 5th in NL West
San Francisco Giants (72-90 in 2008)
Key additions: Randy Johnson (P), Edgar Renteria (IF)
Key subtractions: Ray Durham (IF)
What the hell does Matt Cain have to do to catch a break? In 2007, Cain pitched to an ERA of 3.65 and managed to lose 16 games. In 2008, he had a 3.76 ERA and got 14 losses. A career ERA of 3.74 and he has a .411 win percentage. Don't blame Cain, blame his offense, which was just ghastly last year (2nd to worst in baseball). Renteria is OK, but nothing special. What is special is the front of the Giants' rotation: Cain and Lincecum. If Barry Zito ever gets his head out of his backside and pitches like Oakland Zito...that offense is still going to hold them back, a lot.
BP prediction: 3rd in NL West
My prediction: 3rd in NL West
San Diego Padres (63-99 in 2008)
Key additions: David Eckstein (IF)
Key subtractions: Trevor Hoffman (P), Khalil Greene (IF)
I give you baseball's worst offense in 2008 in terms of run production, plating only 637, or less than 4 runs a game. Their pitching, on the other hand...was actually pretty bad too (hey, they lost 99 games). You'd think that a pitching staff with Jake Peavy in it couldn't be one of baseball's worst, and it wasn't...but it was in the bottom half. Close enough. They need healthy guys, timely hitting, oh yeah, and wins. Lots of those. Do I think they're coming? Meh.
BP prediction: 5th in NL West
My prediction: 4th in NL West
No comments:
Post a Comment