Baseball's largest division never usually lacks for drama, but last year, it kinda did. The Cubs were in charge for basically the entire season and the rest of the teams started to space themselves out towards the end of the year, with the only battle being for the Wild Card. I'm not imagining a change at the top in 2009.
Now keep in mind that the Baseball Prospectus projected standings I'm using change daily, so the standings I input for some of these teams may be different in a few days than when I post it.
Chicago Cubs, defending division champions (97-64 in 2008)
Key additions: Kevin Gregg (P), Aaron Heilman (P)
Key subtractions: Jim Edmonds (OF), Kerry Wood (P), Jason Marquis (P)
I know the Cubs have choked in the past, but last year's postseason was beyond a choke: they just plain didn't show up. The NL's top seed was dismissed by a clearly inferior Dodgers team in yet another 3-game sweep, and they've now lost 9 playoff games in a row dating back to 2003. I can't imagine that Cubs fans aren't used to this kind of treatment, but if it makes them feel any better, I think they'll get another chance in the playoffs this year. Lou Piniella is a damn fine manager, they've got a damn fine offense, and there are few pitching staffs in the NL that compare to theirs. Oh you'll make it to October, but beyond that, I can't help.
BP prediction: NL Central champions
My prediction: NL Central champions
Milwaukee Brewers (90-72 in 2008)
Key additions: Trevor Hoffman (P), Braden Looper (P)
Key subtractions: Ben Sheets (P), CC Sabathia (P)
For the first time in my life, the Brewers made the playoffs in 2008. They didn't last very long, but at least they got the monkey off their backs. It's too bad that this season, they no longer have the reason they made the playoffs -- he's now wearing Yankee pinstripes. CC pitched over 130 innings in about 2 months and change of being a Brewer and had an astronomical ERA+ of 260 in that period. Additionally, the now-and-often injured Ben Sheets pitched to an ERA of about 3 in 31 starts. I have no idea who they plan on having that kind of pitching production, but I'm not seeing it. They've got some bats, most notably Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but they're going to have to kick it up a couple notches if the Brewers want back in the playoffs, because this team doesn't have the pitching (and I don't count Trevor Hoffman, who I consider very close to being done).
BP prediction: 2nd in NL Central
My prediction: 3rd in NL Central
Houston Astros (86-75 in 2008)
Key additions: Ivan Rodriguez (C), Mike Hampton (P)
Key subtractions: Ty Wigginton (IF), Brad Ausmus (C)
The Houston Astros, fresh off of hitting the lottery, look to improve upon their 3rd place finish in 2008, and as far as I'm concerned, there's no reason in particular that they can't...aside from the fact that their pitching isn't that great and their offense isn't that great. Seriously, the battle in this division probably isn't for the title; it's for 2nd. There are no particularly legitimate contenders beneath the Cubs, and one thing this club has going for them is how strongly they played in the second half (49-32, though they way outpaced their Pythag w-l). A potential cause for concern is how poorly the offense are playing in the Spring, but the pitching stats look OK.
BP prediciton: 5th in NL Central
My prediction: 5th in NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76 in 2008)
Key additions: Khalil Greene (IF)
Key subtractions: Troy Glaus (IF), Kyle Lohse (P), Cesar Izturis (IF), Adam Kennedy (IF)
The Cardinals are one of those teams I expect to compete every year; it's a shame they haven't done it in a couple years. Even when they won the WS in 2006, they were relatively blah (83 wins that season, the fewest of any world champion) and since then they've remained blah. This team should be doing better than they have been, but in 2009 they've lost a big source of their power (Troy Glaus) and they've moved one of their outfielders (Skip Schumaker) to 2B. The good news is that their old Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter is coming back for a full season after his injury woes. If Carpenter comes back and even looks close to the way he did in the past (which who knows if he will), the Cardinals will have some say in how the National League shakes out provided the rest of the team holds up their end.
BP prediction: 3rd in NL Central
My prediction: 2nd in NL Central
Cincinnati Reds (74-88 in 2008)
Key additions: Ramon Hernandez (C)
Key subtractions: Paul Bako (C)
Dusty's first year at the helm of the Reds didn't quite go to plan as Cincy ended up in 5th place in this 6-team division. No more are Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey on this team, leaving really only Joey Votto as the offensive threat. Pitching is probably where they're going to make their money, with young studs Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto taking over. The Reds got a good year out of their bullpen last season for the most part amongst the regulars, but some of their starting was lacking. The Reds will struggle to score runs but will go as far as their young arms take them.
BP prediction: 4th in NL Central
My prediction: 4th in NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95 in 2008)
Key additions: Zip
Key subtractions: Nada
There's really not much to say about the Pirates: they have what look like should be some fine young players, but they never put it together. When one thing goes right, 3 things go wrong. I hope for their sake that I'm wrong, but there's a chance they could be even worse this year. The front office is clearly clueless, having settled for signing Indian guys that won a reality show, but I suppose 16 straight losing seasons will drive anyone crazy. At least you've got the Steelers, right?
BP prediction: 6th in NL Central
My prediction: 6th in NL Central
Next: the short but sweet AL West
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