After a brief flourish in the mid-2000s, the AL Central again appears to be one of those divisions where no one looks certain to be great and probably no one will be a top seed in the playoffs. Both of the teams in last year's one-game playoff for the title, the White Sox and Twins, came from pretty much nowhere to compete for a playoff berth while the team the media loved in the preseason, the Detroit Tigers, started the year at 0-7 and finished up embarrassingly in last place. 2009 is looking to be much the same deal in terms of it being a down year for this division.
As always, Baseball Prospectus' predictions will be matched up with mine.
Chicago White Sox, defending division champions (89-74 in 2008)
Key additions: Bartolo Colon (P) [although I doubt it's truly "key"]
Key subtractions: Joe Crede (IF), Orlando Cabrera (IF)
The White Sox ended up making the postseason for the first time since their 2005 World Series triumph last season, but ended up with not much to show for it as they lost in the first round to the Tampa Bay Rays. This season, the Sox will be forging on without 3B Joe Crede and SS Orlando Cabrera, both of whom have moved on to other AL foes. Chicago succeeded last year due to some pretty good pitching: their staff-wide ERA+ was at 111 and were 6th in the AL in ERA (4.06). Their lineup, however, isn't quite as potent this year as it was last. New 2B Chris Getz has negligible ML experience, while CF Dewayne Wise and 3B Josh Fields have put together mediocre-to-meh stats in their limited time in the bigs. I don't think it's going that far out on a limb to put the White Sox hopes on their pitching staff repeating its success last year, only this time, they're not going to get as many runs for support.
BP prediction: 5th in AL Central
My prediction: 4th in AL Central
Minnesota Twins (88-75 in 2008)
Key additions: Joe Crede (IF)
Key subtractions: None of note
The runners-up in the AL Central are, in my mind, the team to beat this year. That's a pretty bold statement for a team that some experts (and BP) think will fade, but I can see a few reasons why the Twins are my frontrunners for the division title. First, I'm not particularly sold on any of the teams in this division, but Mauer and Morneau are not going to cool off any time soon, or really ever. They know how to mash and win division titles. Crede might be able to help, but he's not having a good spring. Furthermore, Francisco Liriano is back. Remember how he outduled Roger Clemens in his 2nd of 3 returns to baseball? I sure do. If he ever gets that mojo back, the AL ought to look out; Liriano, unlike Crede, IS having a good spring. I just like the look of this team based on pitching alone. I don't think anyone else in the AL Central tops it.
BP prediction: T-3rd in AL Central
My prediction: AL Central champions
Cleveland Indians (81-81 in 2008)
Key additions: Mark DeRosa (IF), Kerry Wood and Carl Pavano (Lords of the DL)
Key subtractions: Paul Byrd (P)
A lot went wrong for the Tribe last year...a LOT (but not as much as the team at the bottom of this list). On the heels of their 2007 ALCS meltdown, the Indians got off to a very slow start in 2008, after which they jettisoned CC Sabathia and Jason Michaels in trades. To make matters worse, starter Fausto Carmona had a miserable season just a year after placing 4th in the Cy Young voting and Travis Hafner, the most potent threat in Cleveland's offense, went down for the year. This year, the Indians are regrouping, but not by much. Hafner will be back and they've added a decent bat in DeRosa, but it remains to be seen how much they can count on Wood and Pavano. Wood was a pitcher of tremendous promise with the Cubs who could have gotten injured by someone sneezing on him, and as any Yankee fan will tell you, Carl Pavano was the franchise's biggest free agent bust of all-time. I think the Indians are decent, but I'm not in love with them. Having a poor spring (not that it necessarily matters) doesn't improve my evaluation of them.
BP prediction: AL Central champions
My prediction: 3rd in AL Central
Kansas City Royals (75-87 in 2008)
Key additions: Mike Jacobs (IF), Coco Crisp (CF)
Key subtractions: Mark Grudzielanek (IF), Ramon Ramirez (P)
Hey, they got out of the basement! The hard part will be staying out. The offense isn't that great (691 runs in 2008) and neither is the pitching (781 runs in 2008) but maybe there's a little hope. Pitcher Luke Hochevar has nowhere to go but up, Meche and Greinke are reasonably good, and closer Joakim Soria is really quite good. As for the offense, I'm not sure how much Jacobs is going to add, but Coco has had some decent seasons and is in his prime. They may win a few more games or lose a few more; I'm not sure which. But what I am sure of is that the Royals crashing to 100 losses would be underachieving and the Royals soaring to 100 wins would be a sure sign of divine intervention.
BP prediction: T-3rd in AL Central
My prediction: 5th in AL Central
Detroit Tigers (74-88 in 2008)
Key additions: Gerald Laird (C), Adam Everett (IF), Brandon Lyon (P)
Key subtractions: Todd Jones (P), Kenny Rogers (P), Edgar Renteria (IF)
March 31, 2008: ESPN's Steve Phillips picked the Tigers to defeat the Cubs in the World Series with what he said was, and I quote, "the best offense in the history of baseball." It's too bad the Tigers forgot to get pitching as well. The whole staff from top-to-bottom was just terrible last year with the exception of a select few. On the offensive side, the Tigers ended up scoring a bunch of runs, but not nearly enough to keep up with their miserable pitching. In 2009, they've added roleplayers in the offense and a so-so/good closer in Brandon Lyon, but otherwise are depending on bounceback seasons from guys like Justin Verlander, Gary Sheffield, and Nate Robertston. I'm still sour on them from their disastrous year last year, so I'm in no rush to pick them now.
BP prediction: 2nd in AL Central
My prediction: 2nd in AL Central
Next up: a longer one, the NL Central
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